The Marsoft Tanker Report has just been released, and two forces are dominating the near-term and medium-term outlook for the tanker market.
Middle East Gulf Conflict: The Near-Term Swing Factor
The timing and resolution of the Middle East Gulf conflict is the single most important variable for near-term tanker market direction. A swift resolution supports our base and high case scenarios, where rates hold firm on continued demand strength and trade flow normalization. A prolonged conflict, however, could push the market into our low case, with disrupted routing, elevated risk premiums, and constrained fleet deployment weighing on effective supply and demand dynamics.
Record Tanker Ordering: A Medium-Term Inflection Point
Since the start of 2026, the tanker segment has seen a surge in conventional-fuel newbuilding orders. First-quarter ordering activity pushed the global tanker orderbook to its highest level since 2011 — a significant inflection point for fleet supply. This wave of new tonnage will accelerate fleet growth across 2027–2029, likely driving both rates and asset values well below current peaks, regardless of how the Gulf conflict resolves.
For the full Tanker Report — including our detailed scenario analysis, rate forecasts, and asset value projections — please contact our advisory team.
