Our Methodology
Proprietary methodology rooted in MIT research and continuously refined through four decades of advising leading maritime institutions. Human expertise combined with quantitative rigor.
Academic Roots
Marsoft's methodology has its roots in MIT research from the 1980s and was first endorsed by the Norwegian Shipowner's Association, serving as a mainstay for the shipping community ever since.
- 1983
Marsoft founded by MIT researchers
- 1980s
First endorsement by Norwegian Shipowner's Association
- 1990s
Expansion of FLAGSHIP valuation system
- 2000s
Navigator DSS development and enhancement
- 2010s
Decarbonization platform launch
- 2020s
Continued refinement and MIT collaboration on decarbonization
Core Principles
Our methodology is built on fundamental principles that have guided our analysis through every major market cycle.
Human Expertise + Quantitative Models
We combine algorithmic analysis with expert judgment from PhD-level maritime economists. Unlike automated approaches, our analysts review every output, applying decades of experience to interpret results and identify nuances that models miss.
- Models provide analytical foundation
- Experts interpret and validate results
- Combined approach outperforms either alone
Scenario-Based Analysis
Markets are inherently uncertain. We provide ranges of outcomes under different scenarios rather than single-point forecasts that convey false precision. This approach better supports real-world decision-making.
- Base case market outlook
- Alternative risk scenarios
- Probability-weighted outcomes
- Sensitivity to key assumptions
Fundamental Analysis
Our forecasts are built from economic fundamentals - supply and demand drivers, trade flows, fleet dynamics, and macroeconomic factors. This grounding in fundamentals provides more reliable long-term insights.
- Supply/demand modeling
- Trade flow analysis
- Fleet productivity assessment
- Macroeconomic integration
Continuous Refinement
Our models are continuously updated based on new data, market developments, and rigorous accuracy review. Four decades of refinement have produced battle-tested methodologies.
- Monthly data integration
- Quarterly model review
- Annual methodology audit
- Accuracy tracking and improvement
FLAGSHIP Valuation Methodology
Our proprietary FLAGSHIP system provides comprehensive asset valuation and portfolio management capabilities.
How FLAGSHIP Differs from AVMs
| Attribute | FLAGSHIP | Typical AVM |
|---|---|---|
| Foundation | Human expertise enhanced by models | Fully automated algorithms |
| Output | Scenarios with expert interpretation | Single point estimates |
| Track Record | 40+ years of proven application | Limited historical validation |
| Customization | Tailored to client requirements | Standardized output |
| Support | Direct analyst access | Self-service only |
Forecasting Methodology
Our market forecasts have guided decision-making through every major shipping cycle since the 1980s.
Data Collection
Comprehensive data gathering from multiple sources including market rates, transactions, fleet tracking, trade flows, and macroeconomic indicators — all validated by our research team.
Supply Analysis
Detailed modeling of fleet supply including orderbook analysis, delivery forecasting, scrapping projections, fleet productivity modeling, and conversion and casualty factors.
Demand Analysis
Trade flow modeling and cargo demand forecasting by commodity and route, incorporating regional demand, seasonality patterns, and economic drivers.
Scenario Development
Multiple scenarios capturing key uncertainties and their market implications, including base case formulation, alternative scenarios, and probability assessment.
Expert Review
Senior analyst review and interpretation of model outputs, including validation, scenario calibration, signal identification, and report preparation.
Track Record
Four decades of forecasting through every major market cycle.
Advance warning of market deterioration based on supply/demand imbalance analysis
Protected client investments ahead of the global shipping downturn
Identified market bottom signals and recovery potential in key segments
Clients positioned for the subsequent market recovery
Rapid scenario analysis of pandemic impact on trade flows and fleet utilization
Provided actionable intelligence during unprecedented market disruption
Forecast container and dry bulk rate surges based on demand/supply modeling
Clients capitalized on historic market highs with timely positioning
Supply/demand analysis indicated likely market deterioration for Middle East investment fund
Market collapsed six months after our research delivery
Methodology grounded in academic research and continuously refined with intellectual rigor
Models tested through actual market application, not just backtesting
Independence & Objectivity
Our pure advisory model ensures completely objective analysis. Our only interest is getting the analysis right. Clients trust Marsoft because they know our advice is completely objective.
No Trading
We don't buy, sell, or trade vessels. No incentive to bias valuations.
No Brokerage
We don't earn commissions on transactions. No incentive to encourage deals.
No Financing
We don't provide or arrange financing. No lender relationships to protect.
No Ownership
We don't own vessels or shipping companies. No portfolio to talk our book.
Frequently Asked Questions
Since 1983. It has roots in MIT research, was first adopted by the Norwegian Shipowner's Association, and has been refined through every major shipping cycle since.
The quantitative models have roots in academic research at MIT and have been tested and refined over 40+ years of practical application in maritime markets.
Monthly data integration, quarterly model reviews, and annual methodology audits. The forecasts are built from economic fundamentals — supply and demand drivers, trade flows, fleet dynamics — rather than short-term pattern matching.
Experience Our Methodology
Contact us to discuss how Marsoft's proven methodology can support your decision-making.