Hurricane Ida Likely To Have Only Small Impact on Tanker Rates in 21Q3

Before hurricane Ida made landfall, nearly 1.75 mbd crude production and 2.2 mbd refinery capacity were reportedly shut down. We believe that the impact of Ida’s disruption on tanker rates depends on how quickly the US Gulf refining and production operations resume. If these outages last for less than a week, we expect only a minimal impact on tanker rates during 21Q3.

US crude imports and exports would edge down due to refinery shutdowns and crude oil production shut-ins, while US product imports would increase from our expected 21Q3 Base Case levels due to refinery closures. As a result, crude tanker rates would likely edge down from our 21Q3 Base Case levels, whereas product tanker rates would see a small positive impact. We are monitoring the developments and will provide an update if the outages last longer than expected.